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Essex (County of) <br />below - average economic performance: The unemployment rate in the Essex - Windsor area was about 12.6% in <br />2009, a notable increase from the 9.0% in 2008. In addition, and as expected, income - support caseloads <br />increased by about 16.8%. Conversely, construction activity results improved somewhat, as building permits and <br />housing starts increased about 40.1% and 8.2%, respectively, in 2009. Nevertheless, we expect moderate <br />diversification strategies to benefit the county's economy modestly. For example, Essex is refocusing its <br />manufacturing away from the automotive sector, toward sectors such as alternative energy, medical equipment, <br />aerospace, and pure and applied research and development. <br />Capital expenditure program, liquidity, and debt <br />Essex's capital expenditure remained elevated, at about C$23.2 million in 2008, similar to the level of spending in <br />2007, but notably higher than in previous years. More than two - thirds of 2010 spending went to rehabilitating and <br />expanding the county's road network. We expect Essex's main capital expenditure in coming years to be ongoing <br />roadwork. It expects to spend about C$8 million per year on road reconstruction and a similar amount on road <br />expansion. Standard & Poor's believes the county's capital expenditure plan is well within its means. <br />We believe that Essex's current liquidity is strong, and has been for many years. Cash, liquid assets, and committed <br />facilities amounted to 71.7% of 2008 operating expenditure. In addition, own cash and cash equivalents minus own <br />direct debt outstanding amounted to 22.5% of operating revenue in 2008, establishing the county as a significant <br />net creditor, a position which it has maintained for many years. We expect that Essex will maintain its net creditor <br />status. In addition, as its own liquidity improves modestly in the next three years, we also believe that Essex's <br />liquidity position will remain amongst the strongest of its international and domestic peers. <br />The county's own direct debt and interest expense amounted to a low 32.8% and 1.9% of operating revenues, <br />respectively, in 2008. Debt levels fallen modestly since 2006 as a result of a lack of debt issuance and the amortizing <br />structure of existing debt. Essex's combined debt burden (including lower -tier debt) was noticeably higher than the <br />upper tier's direct debt profile, although still low at 50.6% of 2008 operating revenue. We expect Essex's own debt <br />to continue its modest decline in the next three years (direct debt -to- operating revenue could fall to about 25% by <br />2012 by Standard & Poor's own conservative forecast). The county expects its combined debt burden to increase <br />moderately, to 60%-65% of operating revenue. Overall, we expect Essex's debt profile to remain similar to that of <br />similarly rated peers. <br />Outlook <br />The stable outlook reflects our expectation that there will be no material increase in the county's debt and that cash <br />and investment balances will remain strong. Standard & Poor's also expects that Essex will continue to produce <br />stable operating results. A dramatic increase in debt at the lower -tier level or a major economic deterioration could <br />lead to a negative rating action. <br />Table 1 <br />County of Essex -- Economic Statistics <br />Total <br />Population summary* population <br />% aged 14 <br />years or <br />younger <br />% aged 65 <br />years or <br />older <br />Median <br />age <br />17 <br />1 <br />1 3.3 <br />3 7. 5 <br />Economic statistics (% change) 2009 <br />2008 <br />2007 <br />2006 2005 <br />Population11 1.3 <br />1.3 <br />1.3 <br />1.3 1.3 <br />www. standardandpoors .com /ratingsdirect 3 <br />8038461300071004 <br />